Local media advertising is forecast to reach $174 billion by 2021, according to the latest U.S. Local Advertising Forecast 2017 from BIA/Kelsey, driven by strong mobile, mobile video, social and local online advertising – set to increase at least 17% each by 2021.
In line with a weaker US economy, advertising estimates for 2017 were slightly decreased to $147.9 billion from a projected $148.8 billion made back in October 2016 (see image).
Future growth within online and digital ad revenues is forecast to be a little higher than originally predicted at a CAGR of 11.9% 2016-2021. Traditional ad revenues are expected to see a dip in growth at a CAGR of -0.6%.
Mark Fratrik, Chief Economist, BIA/Kelsey, explains:
“We are on the precipice of different advertising channels taking lead positions in the local advertising marketplace. Although national and local businesses still utilize a mix of digital and traditional advertising platforms, the opportunities afforded by mobile, social and video advertising are incredibly valuable due to their measurability, adoption by consumers and enhancements by technologies such as beacons and data attribution that blend extraordinarily well with today’s mobile consumer.”
The report finds that the top five media sources and their contributions to the overall market revenue share in 2017 are:
Direct Mail at $37.1 billion (25% share), Local TV: $20.9 billion (14% share), Online / Interactive: $18.6 billion (11% share), Newspapers: $16 billion (11% share), Mobile at $16 billion (11% share) replacing Local Radio ($15.6 billion).